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2026-04-14 · macro — The August 2024 yen carry trade unwind was not a one-off event. It was the first tremor. The Bank of Japan is still the largest buyer of Japanese government bonds and the second-largest foreign holder of US Treasuries. Every time the yen rallies, that position becomes a source of forced selling. The next tremor is closer than the market is positioned for.
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2026-03-31 · macro — Q1 2026: a Fed that refused to cut, a dollar that refused to weaken, and a global liquidity expansion that refused to wait for either. The quarter in full.
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2026-03-29 · macro — Global M2 shows the highest correlation with Bitcoin's price among all macro variables tested. The money printer dictates the trajectory - and it's running again.
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2026-03-20 · macro — The Bank of Japan abandoned yield curve control, letting 10-year JGB yields rise to 1.8%. The yen carry trade unwind is draining global liquidity.
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2026-03-19 · macro — DXY climbed to 108 as global capital flows toward US assets. The milkshake theory predicted this - but its implications for Bitcoin are more nuanced than either side admits.